Alternative fuel; Nigeria's 500 Pound Gorilla
Since the whole country is fixated on the from a month long leave. Which automatically translates to fresh against the president. Our nation of 140 million (more men than women, hehe) readies herself for a fresh round of mud-slinging. We should bare in mind that the rest of the world is marching on with or without us.
What conspiracy theory have I dreamed up this time? It is related to the debate on alternative fuels.
It is (Krugman is a cult figure in economics) that the West does not have the alternative fuel thing pinned down yet, but its only a matter of time. If researchers can do , then with the level of presently being deployed into research of alternative fuels, it is only a matter of time before the remaining kinks get ironed out and a truly viable form of alternative fuel emerges. When this happens, what would Nigeria do?
It is that there will be a total replacement for fossil fuels, but there is a pretty good chance that the energy sector will experience a form of disruptive discovery that would send the $/barrel for petroleum in a downward spiral. Are we prepared for this? What are we going to do if this happens. For a Nation which is highly invested in the energy sector as ours, discussion in this sector is painfully quiet. Are we ignoring the 500 pound gorilla in the room? There does not seem to be any debates or a general feeling of urgency to develop a plan B. My hope is that we never have to resort to a Plan B, since plan A seem to be almost impossible to implement anyway. But what if demand really drops? What are we going to do?
Elsewhere
I always thought this was the surest means to peace, if there is anything like that. Expensive, but more predictable than wars.
I want , grrr my heart is with Sony.
What conspiracy theory have I dreamed up this time? It is related to the debate on alternative fuels.
It is (Krugman is a cult figure in economics) that the West does not have the alternative fuel thing pinned down yet, but its only a matter of time. If researchers can do , then with the level of presently being deployed into research of alternative fuels, it is only a matter of time before the remaining kinks get ironed out and a truly viable form of alternative fuel emerges. When this happens, what would Nigeria do?
It is that there will be a total replacement for fossil fuels, but there is a pretty good chance that the energy sector will experience a form of disruptive discovery that would send the $/barrel for petroleum in a downward spiral. Are we prepared for this? What are we going to do if this happens. For a Nation which is highly invested in the energy sector as ours, discussion in this sector is painfully quiet. Are we ignoring the 500 pound gorilla in the room? There does not seem to be any debates or a general feeling of urgency to develop a plan B. My hope is that we never have to resort to a Plan B, since plan A seem to be almost impossible to implement anyway. But what if demand really drops? What are we going to do?
Elsewhere
I always thought this was the surest means to peace, if there is anything like that. Expensive, but more predictable than wars.
I want , grrr my heart is with Sony.
3Comment(s):
Walahi if that happens I am taking up residency in Mali.
Only time will tell.
I think 'downward spiral' is a bit dramatic.
First of all, it's not feasible that people will throw away their cars just because an alternative fuel has just been discovered, unless the fuel offers some advantage so dramatic that people will think it worthwhile replacing their cars. So there will still be quite a few cars using petroleum for a while yet which will still keep that industry active.
Secondly, new technology is usually expensive initially because it isn't usually produced at a large enough scale to lower costs. So as is usually the case, the alternative fuel will find use amongst specialist users before it branches out to the mass market - and this could take a while.
Thirdly, it is possible that a new supply infrastructure will need to be built to replace the existing one for supplying fuel (e.g. petrol stations, tankers, rigs, pipes, etc.) This will take time.
Fourthly, there will still be a use for petroleum products in petrochemical industries for making plastics, etc. so the price won't collapse altogether.
But all this means is that at least there will be fair warning. If once the technology is a reality, we still choose to bury our head in the sand, then that's really too bad...
...or is it? On the plus side, if the alternative fuel is one that derives energy from universal renewable sources (like the sun), then that will be a good thing because it will break the average Nigerian's dependency on PHCN. Also, I'm much more of a believer in the importance of people in developing a country as opposed to natural resources - so I'm not too worried if we run out of fuel, as long as we have enough smart people to start some other industry which can get its raw material from somewhere else.