Is The Enemy of My Enemy My Friend?...
Apparently, NO! Mr Atiku discovered this painful truth as Buhari broke ranks with him when it came to executing the plan to boycott the forthcoming election.
If the opposition do not bond, there is a zero chance of winning the election. If the opposition leaders come together, there is at least some chance for victory. So the opposition stick together right? Now it is about to get more interesting.
Buhari is at his full capacity presently, while Atiku has been battling court cases left and right, although he possesses a strong chance to win the election however he is not presently at peak capacity. Buhari would love for the elections to hold, if and only if the other 18 parties would back him up. Atiku is not prepared for an election on Saturday, he his hoping for a postponement. If Buhari isn't backed by the entire opposition he would scream for a boycott. He'd rather turn the whole process into rofo-rofo fighting and hope that a major scandal will bring the PDP war horse down sometime soon. For the other candidates a siddon-look attitude will be optimum, that is, back up any individual that come out on top of the Buhari v. Atiku semi-final bout.
So what would Buhari do? Since a postponement will only result in an Atiku nomination, Buhari then chooses to play along with the opposition, get as many backers as possible, and then contest this Saturday. Atiku will keep whining because he is not in good shape and he is now left with the short end of the stick.
PDP will win on Saturday once again. This would not be due to the unavailability of worthy competition, but because of the fishy nature of the objectives of the opposition coalition. The coalition is out for only their own ends and not for the good of the 'man on the street' so there is no way that this self serving ends can align in such a way that the opposition will become formidable enough to topple the PDP rigging machine. If only the politicians had the interest of the masses it would be much easier to come up with a worthy coalition candidate. My observation Buhari seem to be better than Atiku at game theory, his final strategy is on point.
If the opposition do not bond, there is a zero chance of winning the election. If the opposition leaders come together, there is at least some chance for victory. So the opposition stick together right? Now it is about to get more interesting.
Buhari is at his full capacity presently, while Atiku has been battling court cases left and right, although he possesses a strong chance to win the election however he is not presently at peak capacity. Buhari would love for the elections to hold, if and only if the other 18 parties would back him up. Atiku is not prepared for an election on Saturday, he his hoping for a postponement. If Buhari isn't backed by the entire opposition he would scream for a boycott. He'd rather turn the whole process into rofo-rofo fighting and hope that a major scandal will bring the PDP war horse down sometime soon. For the other candidates a siddon-look attitude will be optimum, that is, back up any individual that come out on top of the Buhari v. Atiku semi-final bout.
So what would Buhari do? Since a postponement will only result in an Atiku nomination, Buhari then chooses to play along with the opposition, get as many backers as possible, and then contest this Saturday. Atiku will keep whining because he is not in good shape and he is now left with the short end of the stick.
PDP will win on Saturday once again. This would not be due to the unavailability of worthy competition, but because of the fishy nature of the objectives of the opposition coalition. The coalition is out for only their own ends and not for the good of the 'man on the street' so there is no way that this self serving ends can align in such a way that the opposition will become formidable enough to topple the PDP rigging machine. If only the politicians had the interest of the masses it would be much easier to come up with a worthy coalition candidate. My observation Buhari seem to be better than Atiku at game theory, his final strategy is on point.
8Comment(s):
Excellent piece.
well, i don't think its about BUhari playing da game better. its about Atiku not being exactly ready for this weeks election (tnx to scores of court cases).
In the end, i foresee PDP winning again with da help of rigging and intimidation.
One thing you seem to be bt-passing, however is that Atiku is a dogged politician. He always finds a way out. And He may, once again SURPRISE his opponents and well-wishers alike.
The opposition had chances to get their act together weeks before tomorrows election, but Atiku as usual stalled. If Atiku had come on board, I am pretty sure the rest of the opposition would have followed suit and we possibly would have had a closer election.
When I first wrote about the potential for a coalition, I was extremely excited. Not because I prefer a particular candidate or set of candidates over another, but because I liked the strategy and it made sense.
Unfortunately, the opposition could not agree on a candidate. Like ababoy stated, they had a long time to get their act together. Any intelligent person could hve foreseen the importance of a coalition, with or without Atiku, and should have begun strident attempts to formulate one on some level.
Anyway, as I just noted at my blog, the ballots are yet to arrive in Nija, so, the opposition may as yet have some time to get some traction, but if not, well, we shall have Yar'Adua for President and a lot of voters will feel disgruntled because their 'leaders'' could not organize on time.
that is exactly right, whichever way you slice and dice it. This guys dont even give one bit about the people they hoping to lead.
This is just strictly down to pple not caring bout the general welfare of the country and setting out for personal gain...Buhari only proved he was a coward by waiting for the papers to be filed before refusing to boycott...laffn at the recent "truckbomb" attempt tho...didnt know we had suicide bombers!!!
personally i would want Buhari to lead this country. My dad told me that when he ruled before, nigeria was a better place. I don't get why atiku wants to rule the country. Isn't being vice-president enough for him or didn't he embezzle enough money that he wants to come back for more??? What did he do for nigeria when he was vice president??? Did he try to combate poverty, try to create more jobs or do something really credible for nigeria? NO!!!
Chidi, I recall Buhari's regime vividly, but do not be fooled though it was a bit harsh. WAI was tough, but maybe that's what our country really needs. It was sort of a police state.