My Sino-Indian fascination is no secret, I am intrigued by the idea that countries can make plans and stick to those plans. I am even more fascinated when developng economies pull this feat off.
Singh talked to Nigeria's Economic Management Team which has been set up with the task of putting the country's finances in shape. According to minister of state for external affairs Anand Sharma, the PM focused on human resource and infrastructure development, stressing that the two needed to be aligned.
Singh who also loves teaching, gave a lecture to our planners. Many studies involving Nigeria have however shown that our issues aren't necessarily that of poor planning or a dearth of sound ideas. Our problems have been closely linked to poor implementation of theoretically sound ideas. Really Nigerian economists developed what was ailed as one of the world's best development plan in the late 70's. I recall this same plan deprived me of precious bonding time with Charlie. Now I can officially lay the blame of my mal-adjustements at Nigeria 's feet. Back to the gist, can the present crop of planners in Nigeria truly bang out a workable Nigerian National Development Plan? I dare to say Nope. Structure, Structure, structure. A round table of Keynes, Smith with a sprinkle of Solow can not save our country given its present state. In summary, Nigeria can not be saved by sound economic theory, in my opinion one Sociologist or one psychologist or one law enforcement officer is worth more than a team of economist, given the present state of decay in home country. I also dare to extend this further by saying a -esque intervention has no place in Nigeria.
In a totally unrelated gist, I just learned that Lucky Dube, the South African Raggae star was shot dead. Totally disheartening. I feel like I know Lucky. We bonded in 1995 (when I first dabbled into college life, need I say it did not go well), those were hard days, no water no electricity and buying hand-out(s) and for some folks outright purchase of grades. Lucky and I bonded you know what I mean wink wink. Bonded. R. I.P Lucky.
A Random African is guest posting, he has some comments about my post The Changing Geography of Oppourtunities. He feels some of my assumption are probably naiive or maybe even untrue. Give it up for the Random African.
Re: Changing Geography of Oppourtunities... So here's a quick semi-drunk draft of the "wrong things":- the focus on India is quite interesting. As far as I know China is growing faster and other Asian countries are doing quite good. So why India ? (i have my bet but let me see what you say)- How Nigeria has easier than India ? now seriously, how ?
India is 10 times bigger, always has a more developed agriculture, a more advanced industrial sector, has an unequal but semi-efficient education system, a better judicial system and far clearer propriety rights. What Nigeria has, as a country to invest in than India hasn't ? Oil ?- What exactly happened in India over the past 20 years ? Well, it's fairly simple: liberalization. Tata which is still the biggest Indian company is more than a hundred years old. And has been owned and operated by that family since creation. There was no privatization to botch, just regulations to withdraw. That means two things: India has been having a local private industrial sector for a long while (yeah rural India is backwards but some sector have been advanced since the colonial period) in India the end of socialist/protectionist policies just meant "get rid of the laws". Nigeria has neither.Actually as a continuation of the "liberalization" vs "privatization" argument. You talk about planning. Long Term, Strategic Planning. Didn't India take off when they actually STOPPED planning ? How do you plan free markets ?- on the issue of low costs: Are low costs possible in an oil economy ? Forget the corruption, are low costs even possible in a country that gets such amounts of free money ? I mean be it through hiring, investing or dumbly spending, the government WILL spend. And that will create inflation. Unless you go Norway but I doubt that would happen (as i see a reference to public-private partnerships).- but here's the most important thing: there is all kind of economic theories about cheap labor and industrialization and they all start with an increase of productivity of the agriculture that makes the peasants move. India has/had it partly because of semi-feudal rural structure but mostly because of their green revolution. How high is the agricultural productivity in Nigeria (or anywhere in Africa north of the Zambeze) ? How is outsourcing services to a country with 70% of rural people, no industry, very low productivity (don't get me started on African productivity), a failed education system gonna work ? basically who is gonna work in call centers (or sweatshops).
Do you think Random African is right? I will be back my own observations.
India is becoming the the epicenter of our ever the flatening world. I look forward to the day that Nigeria will impact the rest of the world the way the Indians and Chinese have done. Further tipping the trade balance, so that when Nigeria sneezes, the rest of the world shivers. Right now it is in the interest of the world for India to thrive, because some of these companies are poised, to bring about the next wave of growth in the global economy. My opinion is that we have it easier than India, we just haven't found the way to channel the oil money. Lesson learnt: strategic positioning.
Business week ; Indian Companies Hit Their Stride, As India's economy grows faster than ever, its newly confident companies are showing their global ambition. And India's moment is evident in the latest BusinessWeek ranking of Asia's top 50 companies. Indian outfits dominate this year's list.
A few years ago Indian establishment were plagued by corruption and bogged down by bureaucracy, a few decades later the situation has been turned around and these same companies or offshoots of these companies are poised to take over the world. Nigeria stands to learn a lot from these lessons presented by this modern day miracle. While we were asleep they planned and planned. I watch as Nigeria's BPE seem to have process with every sale or lease agreement being controversial. It is obvious this is not the way to plan, this can not be the way to move forward. Sometimes I am not too concerned about the present states of things in home country, but I often tremble at the missed oppourtunity and the cost of the missed oppourtunities fto our country's future. If the waste in Nigeria does not give you sleepless nights, check out the article below. Lesson learnt: Long term planning,growth is path dependent. (no microwave wealth creation).
; But the strength of India's showing stands out the most. The Indian companies represented have plenty in common: smart management, low costs, and—increasingly—aspirations to join the elite ranks of multinationals. "All of India is dreaming bigger and aiming higher," says KeshavSanghi, head of equities for Deutsche Bank ( ) in Mumbai.
Growing Opportunity for African Countries; Analysts predict that India could lack 500000 engineers by 2010. There is is still endemic shortage of electricity and water shortage, in rural India. In other words India is not too far gone in the area of infrastructural development. All hope is not lost, we could be the comeback kids, the late adopters. Lesson learnt: we are trapped in a poverty trap (a dearth of initiatives, chasing money instead of pursuing oppourtunities).
Outsourcing as the third industrial revolution; Mr Blinder, Clinton's adviser and a teacher at Princeton already notes that we have barely seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to offshoring the eventual dimensions of which may be staggering. Where are we on this one? Personally I think we are wasting valuable time on what Yaradua did or did not do. I think with critical thinking and planning a private-public hybrid type of initiative can get the idea behind a service village off the ground somewhere close to Ogun state. (Close to Lagos, but away from the hustle and bustle).
Addition Comment; Another story poised to emerge out of India is Medical Tourism/ Outsourcing. India is building world class private facilities staffed by docs of Indian origin who have studied and worked in the U.S. With procedures often costing 1/10th of those in the U.S., increasing amounts of Americans are already travelling there.
From draft folder written in April, updated today. Apologies that the [post is short on links. Hey I am looking to crowd source my paper for the Institute of International Affairs, any ideas.
