The Year In Between 2006 and 2008: On Business
By this weekend this blogger will be off until the 6th of January. Before I go here is my recap of the year. For me '07 was one big lesson about the resilience of human nature.
Personally my confidence level in the US financial markets has yoyoed so much I am now numb to the news of losses. It has also become clear that the 'analysts' may not know more than the cab drivers do. Economists do their best work, post the event occuring, our tools of prediction are poor. Too drawn in by maths and may be too insulated from the realities. The Quandts failed miserable this year, but nobody seem to be talking about the huge gorilla in the room. I'd leave the streets to do its thing, here I will write about my observations and conjectures.
'07 was my second year out of grad school. '06 was pleasant and mostly coasting. '07 was opposite, turbulent, and heightened fear. My suspicion is that I may be addicted to the adrenaline rush that came from this level of uncertainty. Not to worry thought the same analysts say that '08 will be like riding a bobsled downhill. At the moment I do not care about forecasts and outlooks. I learned a major lesson this year. The markets can do whatever it feels like, but personal success is only loosely tied to the general economic conditions. Yes it is harder to get things through but more business seem to be queueing up at ones doorstep because so many competitors have been boarded up.
Still on lessons learned, here are few that got drilled into my brain this year. They may sound like nothing new but at the same time the old folks got it right when they came up with experiences being the greatest teacher.
Small business is mostly about relationship and very little else. One of the biggest challenges this year was so many of my buddies getting fired and having to learn new faces and new ways of doing things. Oh! it felt like all the banks had a meeting to replace all the good guys with stiff necked ones. Ones the relationships were broken it was quite chaotic.
Bottom down policies and remedies only work in controlled environments. when all hell breaks loose. It could be more effective if foot soldiers are allowed to make the calls.
The fancy suits, shiny shoes and make believe lifestyle are only one recession away from being replaced by nagging wives, and watching ESPN at 9 am on Tuesday morning. Personally next time I get an opportunity to ride the waves of a boom. I will ride it prepared and I'd ride it extremely hard. This recession (not that the analysts agree yet) came without much warning. B - school does not prepare anybody for unemployment.
I have watched thirty year veterans of the trade lament about how this is the worst hit they have ever taken. For me this will be the first and last recession I wouldn't be prepared for. As the dust settles on '07. For me, it may not have been one of those defining years but I am glad it all played out the way it did, this are lessons no Professor or journal article can articulate.
